Summary of descriptive statistics for active inference parameters by group
Parameter | Controls | Individuals with ARMS | Patients with FEP | Group comparison* | Controls v. patients with FEP | Controls v. individuals with ARMS | Individuals with ARMS v. patients with FEP | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | Mean ± SD | n | Mean ± SD | n | Mean ± SD | Ft | p value | ξ† | Ψ (95% CI) | p value | Ψ (95% CI) | p value | Ψ (95% CI) | p value | |
Optimism prior | 31 | 0.50 ± 0.05 | 23 | 0.51 ± 0.05 | 26 | 0.52 ± 0.05 | 1.04 | 0.367 | 0.23 | ||||||
Pavlovian win prior | 31 | 0.55 ± 0.07 | 23 | 0.55 ± 0.05 | 26 | 0.56 ± 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.797 | 0.11 | ||||||
Pavlovian loss prior | 31 | 0.52 ± 0.05 | 23 | 0.50 ± 0.06 | 26 | 0.53 ± 0.05 | 1.37 | 0.270 | 0.26 | ||||||
Outcomes sensitivity | 31 | 5.08 ± 0.10 | 23 | 5.06 ± 0.03 | 26 | 5.04 ± 0.06 | 1.36 | 0.278 | 0.25 | ||||||
Forgetting | 31 | 0.41 ± 0.16 | 23 | 0.42 ± 0.21 | 26 | 0.54 ± 0.17 | 5.08 | 0.013 | 0.42 | −0.14 (−0.26 to −0.02) | 0.009 | 0.01 (−0.13 to 0.15) | 0.836 | −0.15 (−0.29 to −0.00) | 0.016 |
Prior on policy precision | 31 | 1.69 ± 0.65 | 23 | 1.56 ± 0.34 | 26 | 1.35 ± 0.64 | 2.88 | 0.077 | 0.38 | 0.33, (−0.11 to 0.68) | 0.070 | 0.05 (−0.22 to 0.36) | 0.673 | 0.28 (−0.15 to 0.55) | 0.082 |
Free energy | 31 | −62.89 ± 23.04 | 23 | −71.77 ± 14.97 | 24 | −79.53 ± 22.34 | 2.97 | 0.089 | 0.40 | 19.44 (1.23 to 36.45) | 0.011 | 9.29 (−6.57 to 24.79) | 0.140 | 10.15 (−5.29 to 24.50) | 0.136 |
Maximum likelihood | 31 | −60.94 ± 23.16 | 23 | −69.73 ± 14.79 | 26 | −78.58 ± 21.45 | 4.26 | 0.028 | 0.45 | 21.46 (4.04 to 36.88) | 0.003 | 8.59 (−6.17 to 22.52) | 0.154 | 12.87 (−0.81 to 24.86) | 0.025 |
ARMS = at-risk for mental health, CI = confidence interval, FEP = first-episode psychosis, SD = standard deviation.
↵* Robust ANOVA analysis of group differences of modelled parameters based on trimmed means using the bootstrap method.
↵† Explanatory measure of effect size (ξ) values of 0.10, 0.30 and 0.50 correspond to small, medium and large effect sizes.