Article Figures & Tables
Figures
- Figure 1
Schematic illustration of orthogonalized go/no-go task.22,23,43
- Figure 2:
Overview of task performance. (A) Learning rate by group and trial type. Patients with first-episode psychosis performed worse (relative to controls) in the “avoid losing” conditions (lower plots). (B) Behavioural performance. Box plots show the medians as horizontal bars, means as small red dots, group means as large red dots and interquartile ranges as whiskers; significant group differences of the Tukey post hoc tests are shown (*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001). ARMS = individuals with at-risk mental state, CON = control group, FEP = patients with first-episode psychosis.
- Figure 3:
Group comparisons of active inference parameters and model fit from robust analysis of variance based on trimmed means using the bootstrap method. Significant results from robust post hoc analyses are shown (*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01). Horizontal bars of boxplots mark the median and whiskers indicate the interquartile range. ARMS = patients with at-risk mental state, CON = control group, FEP = patients with first-episode psychosis.
- Figure 4:
Receiver operating characteristic curves for group comparisons based on classification models using (A) modelling parameters, (B) performance measures and (C) a combination of modelling parameters and performance measures. ARMS = individuals with at-risk mental state, AUC = area under the curve, CON = control group, FEP = patients with first-episode psychosis.
Tables
Variable Controls Individuals with ARMS Patients with FEP Group comparison n Mean ± SD n Mean ± SD n Mean ± SD Statistic p value Total no. of participants 31 23 26 Age, yr 30 22.57 ± 3.68 23 21.22 ± 3.40 25 24.56 ± 4.67 F2,75 = 4.38* 0.016 Gender χ22 = 8.06† 0.018 Female 14 6 3 Male 16 17 22 Antipsychotic medication χ22 = 43.43† < 0.001 Yes 0 2 19 No 29 21 7 Clinical measures‡ WASI 27 30.52 ± 3.39 18 27.56 ± 4.71 21 28.48 ± 5.11 F2,63 = 2.77* 0.070 CAARMS intensity and frequency 26 5.46 ± 3.84 21 29.52 ± 6.71 24 33.67 ± 6.23 H2 = 51.28§ < 0.001 SPQ 29 8.21 ± 6.34 21 35.43 ± 12.10 23 34.22 ± 19.60 H2 = 37.70§ < 0.001 PANSS positive NA NA 21 16.86 ± 2.78 22 21.27 ± 6.22 t29.36 = −3.03¶ 0.005 PANSS negative NA NA 21 14.48 ± 5.95 22 14.82 ± 7.37 W = 239.5** 0.845 CAPS NA NA 21 11.62 ± 7.26 22 11.45 ± 9.43 W = 235.5** 0.922 PDI NA NA 21 7.76 (4.39) 22 9.14 (5.69) t39.31 = −0.89¶ 0.380 MFQ NA NA 21 29.67 (15.04) 24 31.00 (26.32) W = 269.5** 0.699 ARMS = at-risk mental state, CAARMS = Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (excluding 2 items on aggression and suicidality), CAPS = Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale, FEP = first-episode psychosis, MFQ = Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, NA = not applicable, PANSS = Positive And Negative Symptoms Scale, PDI = Peters et al. Delusions Inventory, SD = standard deviation, SPQ = Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, WASI = Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence.
↵* Calculated using 1-way analysis of variance.
↵† Calculated using the Pearson χ2 test.
↵‡ Scores ranged as follows: CAARMS 0–48, SPQ 0–74, PANSS positive 7–49, PANSS negative 7–49, CAPS 0–32, PDI 0–21, MFQ 0–66.
↵§ Calculated using the Kruskal–Wallis test.
↵¶ Calculated using the Welch t test.
↵** Calculated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.
Parameter Controls Individuals with ARMS Patients with FEP Group comparison* Controls v. patients with FEP Controls v. individuals with ARMS Individuals with ARMS v. patients with FEP n Mean ± SD n Mean ± SD n Mean ± SD Ft p value ξ† Ψ (95% CI) p value Ψ (95% CI) p value Ψ (95% CI) p value Optimism prior 31 0.50 ± 0.05 23 0.51 ± 0.05 26 0.52 ± 0.05 1.04 0.367 0.23 Pavlovian win prior 31 0.55 ± 0.07 23 0.55 ± 0.05 26 0.56 ± 0.07 0.24 0.797 0.11 Pavlovian loss prior 31 0.52 ± 0.05 23 0.50 ± 0.06 26 0.53 ± 0.05 1.37 0.270 0.26 Outcomes sensitivity 31 5.08 ± 0.10 23 5.06 ± 0.03 26 5.04 ± 0.06 1.36 0.278 0.25 Forgetting 31 0.41 ± 0.16 23 0.42 ± 0.21 26 0.54 ± 0.17 5.08 0.013 0.42 −0.14 (−0.26 to −0.02) 0.009 0.01 (−0.13 to 0.15) 0.836 −0.15 (−0.29 to −0.00) 0.016 Prior on policy precision 31 1.69 ± 0.65 23 1.56 ± 0.34 26 1.35 ± 0.64 2.88 0.077 0.38 0.33, (−0.11 to 0.68) 0.070 0.05 (−0.22 to 0.36) 0.673 0.28 (−0.15 to 0.55) 0.082 Free energy 31 −62.89 ± 23.04 23 −71.77 ± 14.97 24 −79.53 ± 22.34 2.97 0.089 0.40 19.44 (1.23 to 36.45) 0.011 9.29 (−6.57 to 24.79) 0.140 10.15 (−5.29 to 24.50) 0.136 Maximum likelihood 31 −60.94 ± 23.16 23 −69.73 ± 14.79 26 −78.58 ± 21.45 4.26 0.028 0.45 21.46 (4.04 to 36.88) 0.003 8.59 (−6.17 to 22.52) 0.154 12.87 (−0.81 to 24.86) 0.025 ARMS = at-risk for mental health, CI = confidence interval, FEP = first-episode psychosis, SD = standard deviation.
↵* Robust ANOVA analysis of group differences of modelled parameters based on trimmed means using the bootstrap method.
↵† Explanatory measure of effect size (ξ) values of 0.10, 0.30 and 0.50 correspond to small, medium and large effect sizes.
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